Recent developments in Syria have sent shockwaves across the Middle East, reminiscent of the fervent days of the Arab Spring. Scenes of jubilation fill the streets as rebels oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, dismantling his long-standing regime. Citizens storm notorious regime prisons, liberating political detainees and reuniting with loved ones.
This resurgence of revolutionary momentum unsettles the region’s autocratic rulers, many of whom had recently re-engaged diplomatically with Assad. Leaders from nations like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates now face the dual challenge of managing domestic stability while navigating the geopolitical implications of Syria’s transition.
The growing influence of Islamist factions, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which now holds sway in Damascus, adds to their apprehension. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, speaking at a regional summit in Aqaba, underscored the shared concern: “We do not wish to see Syria descend into chaos or lawlessness.”
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As HTS consolidates power following Assad’s departure to Moscow, predominantly Sunni Arab states tread cautiously. Publicly, they advocate for maintaining Syria’s state institutions and promoting an inclusive political process. Privately, however, apprehension dominates their discussions. Arab ambassadors recently met with HTS representatives in Damascus, signaling a cautious willingness to engage. According to a regional diplomat, the rebels assured these envoys of their safety, emphasizing their intent to foster constructive relations.
A Fragile Diplomatic Balance
Arab leaders’ unease over the Syrian upheaval stems from fears of a power vacuum that could empower Islamist factions and destabilize neighboring countries. These concerns were evident during an emergency meeting held by Arab foreign ministers in Doha, where they urged HTS to negotiate with the remnants of Assad’s regime.
Experts, like Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics, highlight the stakes: “The rise of Islamist groups like HTS is seen as a direct threat to regional stability and could embolden similar movements elsewhere.”
For autocratic regimes, Islamist movements have long been a source of anxiety. Their disciplined structures, social welfare programs, and grassroots appeal present an enduring ideological challenge. This fear is particularly acute in Egypt, where President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has sought to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood following his 2013 coup. The prospect of HTS gaining influence in Syria represents, as one regional diplomat described, an “existential threat” to such regimes.
Repercussions Beyond Syria
The implications of Assad’s fall reverberate across the region. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have led counterrevolutionary efforts since the Arab Spring, are wary of any developments that could inspire unrest. These Gulf monarchies had invested heavily in propping up authoritarian regimes to stave off popular uprisings.
The Arab League’s reintegration of Assad just last year now appears ill-timed. At the 2023 summit in Jeddah, Assad was welcomed back into the fold, symbolizing his rehabilitation on the regional stage. Yet, this rapprochement yielded little in terms of concessions. Assad’s reluctance to distance himself from Iran, curb Syria’s booming captagon trade, or engage moderate opposition groups left Arab leaders disillusioned.
Now, with Assad ousted, these same states are forced to recalibrate their approach. Saudi businessman Ali Shihabi reflects the broader sentiment: “Bashar had already failed to deliver on his promises. The situation now is about damage control.”
New Challenges Emerge
For countries like Jordan, engaging with HTS is not a choice but a necessity. As political analyst Tareq al-Naimat explains: “Maintaining border security requires dealing with whoever holds power on the ground.” Yet, this pragmatic approach comes with significant risks.
Syria’s massive captagon trade, valued at $10 billion annually, poses another challenge. Arab leaders worry that the drug networks, once controlled by Assad, could now fall into the hands of militant groups, exacerbating regional instability.
Egypt faces its own set of challenges. An ongoing economic crisis has fueled public discontent, amplified by social media. Recent protests against President Sisi during his visit to Norway reflect mounting frustrations. A Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated media outlet even circulated a video linking Assad’s overthrow to Sisi’s potential vulnerability, warning the Egyptian leader that he could be next.
Human rights activists have also drawn inspiration from Syria. Mona Seif, a prominent Egyptian activist, expressed solidarity with Syrians who stormed Sednaya prison, a notorious detention center. On social media, she wrote: “The liberation of detainees in Syria has rekindled hope for families worldwide, longing for the release of their loved ones.”
A Precarious Path Forward
The fall of Assad marks a turning point not just for Syria, but for the entire region. While scenes of celebration dominate headlines, the path ahead is fraught with uncertainty. Arab leaders must grapple with the dual challenges of containing the influence of Islamist movements while ensuring that Syria’s transition does not destabilize their own regimes.
As history shows, the fall of a dictator often ushers in chaos before stability can be restored. For the region’s autocrats, the question is not just about Syria’s future, but their own.
