The Islamic State (IS), once thought to be a diminished force, remains active in the expansive desert regions straddling Syria and Iraq. While its territorial caliphate was dismantled years ago, experts caution that the group could exploit Syria’s ongoing instability to stage a comeback.
Exploiting a Power Vacuum
Syria has been plunged into uncertainty following the recent overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad on December 8 by militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group designated as a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and the EU. While HTS has set up a transitional administration in Damascus, its ability to unify and control the country’s fractured armed groups remains in doubt.
Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst, warns that IS thrives in chaos, often exploiting sectarian and ethnic divides to regain influence. “IS is a movement that continuously reinvents itself,” she said, noting that Syria’s volatile environment offers fertile ground for the group’s resurgence.
Sleeper Cells and Growing Threats
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control northeastern Syria, have expressed concern over IS sleeper cells potentially leveraging the fluid situation to reestablish their presence. These cells pose a significant threat, underscored by the recent U.S. air strikes targeting 75 suspected IS camps and operatives in central Syria since December 8, according to the Pentagon.
Thousands of IS fighters and their families remain detained in SDF-controlled camps. Anne Speckhard, director of the International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism, noted that imprisoned IS members hope their supporters will launch prison raids to free them and reignite the group’s territorial ambitions.
Regional Dynamics
Syria’s instability has created new power struggles. On December 11, HTS seized control of the oil-rich city of Deir ez-Zor from the SDF, highlighting the shifting dynamics among various factions. Meanwhile, clashes between the SDF and the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), loosely aligned with HTS, have further complicated the situation.
Aymenn Al-Tamimi, a Spain-based expert on extremist groups, said these infighting factions could inadvertently provide IS with opportunities to regroup. “If the Turkish-backed groups and SDF continue their conflicts, IS might find openings to expand its influence,” he said.
The U.S. Response
Since 2014, the United States has led a global coalition to combat IS, achieving significant milestones, including the killing of its founding leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019 and three of his successors since. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently warned that IS may attempt to use Syria’s turmoil to rebuild.
While experts agree that IS is unlikely to reclaim vast territories as it did in 2014, the group’s remnants remain a persistent threat. “Continued U.S. air strikes and pressure can keep IS in check,” Tamimi said. “But the central and eastern deserts of Syria, where the group is still active, remain critical zones to monitor.”
A Long Road Ahead
Syria’s fractured landscape and unresolved political future present significant challenges. The SDF’s control over key regions and the uncertain relationship between these areas and Damascus leave the door open for further instability.
The world watches closely as Syria’s fragile state unfolds, with fears that the Islamic State may once again attempt to capitalize on the chaos to make a deadly resurgence.
