Climate 200, the political funding group known for supporting teal candidates in the last federal election, has already allocated $200,000 this year to campaigns in a dozen key seats held by the Coalition. They plan to spend an additional $1 million in these districts before the year concludes, as revealed by Crikey. Labor, on the other hand, will face new challenges from candidates backed by groups focused on mobilizing Muslim voters and from the increasingly assertive Greens.
Tony Barry, director of corporate affairs and communications at Redbridge, shared with Crikey, “I think there’s a range of seats that can be vulnerable to a good candidate with a campaign machine. The teals were more than just credible candidates — they had significant money and personnel behind their campaigns, which you need. There have been many independent candidates over the years, some very good, who got utterly defeated at the ballot box because their operations were run from home with just a few family members and friends.
Climate 200 has provided grants to campaigns in 12 seats so far. In Victoria, these campaigns are focused in Casey, Deakin, Monash, and Wannon.
In Deakin, Labor reduced Liberal MP Michael Sukkar’s margin from 4.7% to just 0.2% in the 2022 election.
In Casey, Liberal MP Aaron Violi succeeded retiring colleague Tony Smith, and the margin decreased from 4.6% to 1.5% following a swing towards Labor.
READ MORE: Iran and Russia Sign Landmark Agreement on Payment Systems Integration
In Monash, where Liberal MP Russell Broadbent has since moved to the crossbench, the margin fell from a safe 6.9% to 2.9%, again due to a swing towards Labor. Broadbent’s office declined to comment on his intentions for the next election.
In Wannon, Climate 200-backed independent Alex Dyson came within 3.9 percentage points of Liberal incumbent Dan Tehan in 2022, compared to a previous margin of a safe 10.2%. There are strong local rumors that Dyson is considering running again.
In New South Wales, teals are targeting seats where independent candidates nearly defeated Coalition opponents in 2022. In Cowper, National Pat Conaghan’s margin dropped from a safe 11.9% to a competitive 2.3%. In Bradfield, Liberal Paul Fletcher’s margin decreased from a very safe 16.6% to 4.2%.
In Queensland, Climate 200 supports campaigns in McPherson (which saw a reduction in the Liberal margin from 12.2% to 9.3% in 2022), Moncrieff (15.4% to 11.2%), Fisher (12.7% to 8.7%), and Fairfax (13.4% to 9%). The runners-up in these seats were all Labor candidates.
The last two Climate 200-backed campaigns are in Western Australia. In Forrest, the ALP cut the Liberal margin from 14.6% to 4.3% at the last election. In Moore, Liberal MP Ian Goodenough saw his margin plummet from 11.6% to just 0.7%. Goodenough has since lost Liberal preselection and is reportedly considering contesting the seat as a Nationals candidate, according to The West Australian.
READ MORE: Islamic Jihad: Zionist Forces Aim to Undermine Resistance Through Massacres
“Public support for the major parties has long been trending downwards: people want better options. Australians are concerned about economic management and they want sensible leadership that can steer us out of the climate crisis and strengthen our democratic processes,” said Byron Fay, executive director of Climate 200, in a statement to Crikey.
“Since the stunning success of the independents at the last federal election and their achievements since, the community’s hunger for independent representation has exploded.”
Fay added that Climate 200 is aware of around 20 community campaigns nationwide that are well-positioned to run strong independent campaigns in the next election.
Groups like The Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matter, which are reportedly looking to back candidates in Labor-held seats across the country due to dissatisfaction with the government’s stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict, are more difficult to pinpoint.
The Muslim Vote did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Muslim Votes Matter declined to comment on specific targets, stating: “That is yet to be determined as not all candidates have been named.”
Meanwhile, the Greens aim to capitalize on a broader platform, extending beyond environmental issues to focus on housing and renting. According to Capital Brief, the party will target “Labor heartland,” including seats like Wills in Victoria, which has a safe Labor margin of 8.6%.
Max Chandler-Mather, the Greens’ housing spokesman, told The Australian that the party will also target two additional Brisbane seats currently held by Labor: Lilley, with a 10.5% margin, and Moreton, with a 9.1% margin. The Greens also hope to retain the three Queensland seats they won in 2022.
“It’s not so much about whether or not we can retain these three seats, but whether or not we’ll win another one; Moreton and Lilley are both a big opportunity for us,” Chandler-Mather stated.
The 2022 election saw a “large-scale abandonment of major party voting,” according to the Australian Election Study, with the combined major party primary vote at just 68.3%, the lowest since the 1930s. While the Liberals suffered the most significant losses, Labor did not benefit, recording its lowest primary vote in decades. Instead, the Greens and independents saw gains due to changing voter preferences.
Barry believes that increased competition will benefit communities that might have been taken for granted by the major parties.
“I think competition is always a good thing, especially for the major parties to try to become more relevant, to try to offer more credible policies. That’s what the emergence of these sorts of parties [and movements] do,” he said.
Source: Crikey.Com.Au
