DAMASCUS — Intelligence and political leaders across the Middle East and the West are sounding alarms over the re-emergence of the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq. Following the collapse of Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad, IS operatives are reportedly mobilizing dormant cells and ramping up recruitment, weapons distribution, and targeted operations.
According to over 20 sources—ranging from regional officials to Western diplomats and security analysts—IS has quietly reignited its underground networks across both nations. Though no major resurgence has been confirmed, intelligence agencies in Iraq and Syria have already foiled multiple plots this year.
One significant case occurred in early December, shortly after Assad’s regime fell. IS commanders near Raqqa sent two couriers to Iraq with verbal instructions to initiate attacks. The pair was intercepted at a northern Iraqi checkpoint on December 2, according to five Iraqi counter-terrorism officials. Days later, acting on intelligence from those captures, Iraqi forces located and neutralized a would-be suicide bomber before he could detonate explosives in a packed restaurant in Daquq.
“These developments affirm our suspicions,” said Colonel Abdul Ameer al-Bayati of Iraq’s 8th Division. “IS is clearly trying to reestablish itself, emboldened by Syria’s power vacuum.”
Despite these attempts, the volume of IS-claimed attacks has dropped significantly. SITE Intelligence Group reports just 38 attacks in Syria during the first five months of 2025—on track for a third of the previous year’s total. In Iraq, IS claimed only four attacks during the same period, down from 61 in 2024.
Syria’s newly installed leadership under Islamist figure Ahmed al-Sharaa has remained largely silent on IS activity. However, in January, Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra stated that the nation was enhancing its intelligence capacity and committed to counter-terrorism efforts.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iraq maintain that IS’s capabilities remain severely degraded. “The group is nowhere near reclaiming territory,” said Sabah al-Numan, spokesperson for Iraq’s counter-terrorism agency, crediting proactive strikes and enhanced surveillance for minimizing threats.
The remnants of the militant group, however, continue to exploit internal divisions in Syria. Some foreign fighters are reportedly returning to the region. Intelligence officials in Europe have tracked a small number of suspected jihadists traveling back to Syria for the first time in years, although their group affiliations remain unclear.
Political Tensions Fuel Security Gaps
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s interim government is attempting to consolidate power in a deeply fractured country after over a decade of civil war. A recent diplomatic meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, who lifted sanctions on Syria last month, signaled a shift toward international engagement. However, hardline factions within Syria and militant groups like IS have used this outreach to criticize Sharaa’s leadership.
IS publicly condemned the Sharaa-Trump meeting in its al-Naba publication, urging foreign fighters in Syria to join its cause. At a regional summit in Saudi Arabia, Trump reportedly asked Sharaa to help prevent any IS resurgence, especially as the U.S. scales down its military presence from roughly 2,000 troops to half.
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Concerns are also mounting over the fate of approximately 9,000 IS detainees—many of them foreign nationals—currently held in Kurdish-controlled facilities. The U.S. and Turkey are pressuring the Syrian government to take responsibility, but questions remain about its capacity to manage the security burden. Since Assad’s ouster, at least two prison break attempts have been recorded, according to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
“The new government is overstretched,” noted Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute. “They’re facing internal unrest, Israeli air raids, and insurgencies from both loyalists and extremist groups.”
In a limited number of cases, the U.S. has shared intelligence with Syrian forces, according to sources familiar with internal defense discussions. Just days after Trump’s meeting with Sharaa, Syrian authorities raided IS cells in Aleppo, killing three militants and capturing four others.
Renewed IS Movements and Regional Coordination
The UN estimates that IS still maintains between 1,500 and 3,000 active fighters in Syria and Iraq. While their most potent branches are now in Africa, Syria has seen renewed IS movement since Assad’s fall. Fighters have shifted from the eastern desert into urban strongholds such as Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs.
Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab stated last week that countering IS remains a top priority. Similarly, Iraqi intelligence reports increased IS activity in the Hamrin Mountains and other historically militant regions. Officials worry the group may have accessed weapons abandoned by retreating Syrian forces and could smuggle them across the border.
Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told reporters that Baghdad is actively coordinating with Damascus. “We must prevent Syria from becoming a sanctuary for terrorists again—especially Daesh,” he emphasized.
Despite relative calm, experts caution that Islamic State remains adaptive and dangerous. SITE’s director, Rita Katz, described the group’s current lull in activity as part of a broader “restrategizing phase.”
Conclusion
While a full-scale return to power by IS seems unlikely, regional and international observers agree the group still poses a threat. As Syria’s new leadership struggles to assert control, and as the U.S. reduces its regional footprint, the coming months will test whether joint efforts can prevent the return of a group whose ideology thrives on chaos.